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Predictions on the future of peering.

So let’s plug in your numbers from the field and do some simple peering math.

  1. 1)Assume the market price for transit is $1/Mbps.

  2. 2)Assume the alternative is to go into an IX and buy a 10G port for $2500/month

  3. 3)Assume the cost of colocation, circuit and IX membership fees are $2500/month

  4. 4)Assume there are no other incremental expenses.

The Peering Break Even Point is where you can peer enough traffic to make the unit cost for peering equal the unit price of transit as shown in the equation below.


So from this we see that an ISP will save money if they can peer more than 5Gbps (5000Mbps), and peering will continue to save money up to the maximum usable capacity of the peering interconnect. 

As always, the Business Case for Peering is all about the traffic volume. And yes, there are of course other non-financial reasons for peering.

 

As for your second question .... Where does Peering Make Sense?

Here are three areas for peering growth over the next five years:

  1. 1)Peering generally makes sense when you can peer enough traffic away for free to cover the cost of peering at the IX.  We showed a Peering Break Even Point of 5Gbps today... What traffic type reaches traffic volumes this high? Video.  I believe that those who aren’t peering a lot of video traffic will fall out of the Peering Community over the next couple years.  Conversely I see a whole new emerging peering ecosystem dominated by those who peer a lot of video traffic. 

  2. 2)Peering generally makes sense when the price of transit is high, and there is enough potential peering such that the market peering break even point is reached.  Look to places with artificially high transit prices, like South Africa, Australia and New Zealand, and emerging Internet Ecosystems in parts of Eastern Europe.

  3. 3)Peering generally makes sense when a company can extend network into a foreign Internet peering ecosystem IX and peer enough traffic to offset the cost of peering there.  Examples:  Eastern European, African and Middle East ISPs building into the DECIX.


Dr Peering

DrPeering@DrPeering.net

PS - What happens when the price of transit actually becomes $0/Mbps?  Hint: There must be $ revenue from some other source. 

This is a fun answer to work through.

 

N E W


The Internet Peering Playbook: Connecting to the Core of the Internet


ISBN: 978-1-937451-00-4

Available Now in print, and as a kindle book on Amazon.com and as an ePub on lulu.com and on the Apple iBookStore.